As I watch the end of year numbers roll in perusing the national and local news, as well as blog posts; I am reminded of the following piece of wit from my dear Mr. Clemens:
“Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.’”
- Autobiography of Mark Twain
I am not categorically opposed to statistics. I think, in appropriate context, they can be quite helpful. The breathless reporting on the topic over the past few years has parlayed into what I can only describe a ghoulish fascination akin to being unable to tear one’s eyes away from the scene of an accident. In keeping with mission statement of most media, being “if it bleeds, it leads”, values seem to be at any given moment either: plunging, plummeting, sliding, diving, crashing, sinking, tumbling, or tanking and let’s not forget a few years ago when they were shooting, rocketing, upsurging, soaring, and quickly appreciating.
I realize that some of these words were used appropriately in some situations, but it seems to me that this fixation has done no favors for the viewing public. Quite the opposite, in fact, it has simultaneously scared some folks witless and bolstered the foolish…all for no darned good reason. As a professional in the real estate industry I’m stuck between a rock and a hard place if any statement I utter has the slightest hint of positive or negative, as being either in league with the doomsayers or as a Seattle market Pollyanna apologist. Well, this agent doth protest.
I’m going to mangle a Regan quote:
“The trouble with real estate statistics* is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.”
*Reagan actually says, “our liberal friends” but that’s another discussion for a different time.
I find the statement to be so apt. When you read the news that Seattle home price dropped (or should I say plunged?) 10.2% last month, it may indeed be true for many homes but it is not necessarily true for all Seattle real estate. In fact, some homes in the Seattle market will fare better and others worse for a variety of factors.
This is precisely why I’ve tried to stay away from blanket statements like: “It’s a great time to buy” or “Everyone should just stay put until this all shakes out”. Neither of those statements is universally true nor false. Every decision (like always, I might add) should be made thoughtfully with due examination of pertinent facts like interest rates, individual situations, and yes, market trends.
I’m more than happy to crunch numbers on a particular area or few for someone’s specific needs. However, I am unwilling to (shall we say?) use a hatchet where a scalpel is needed.